How effective is the termination of UN sanctions on Iran?

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) 5+1 agreement caused lifting majority of the comprehensive sanctions implement against Iran from US and EU starting January 2016. This terminations were not limited with US and EU sanctions, on 20 July 2015, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2231 (2015)  endorsing the JCPoA. “The Security Council affirmed that conclusion of the JCPoA marked a fundamental shift in its consideration of the Iranian nuclear issue, expressed its desire to build a new relationship with Iran strengthened by the implementation of the JCPOA and to bring to a satisfactory conclusion its consideration of this matter.

In brief explanation the UN sanctions of Iran for the arms restrictions , missile programs restrictions and nuclear restrictions are decided to be terminated one-by-one with a calendar under the condition of fully implementation of the JCPoA terms by Iran.

The termination calendar of UN is as follow,

  • Arms restrictions on 18.10.2020,
  • Missile-related restrictions, October 2023
  • Nuclear-related restrictions, October 2025

Since the US Administration withdrawal from JCPoA on May 2018 and started to implement comprehensive sanctions on Iran the termination calendar has been one of the objections of the US. The first termination arrived without any agreement of US with her counter-parties, and the termination have been implemented as of 18th Oct 2020 by UN for the arms embargo on Iran.

In fact the sanctions are not merely implement by the UN against on Iran. Due to the Executive Order N.13949 (EO) issued 23 Sept.of this year US started to implement a wider sanction for Conventional Arms Activities of Iran. According to the EO;

  • To engage in any activity that materially contributes to the supply, sale, or transfer, directly or indirectly, to or from Iran, or for the use in or benefit of Iran, of arms or related materiel, including spare parts;
  • to provide to Iran any technical training, financial resources or services, advice, other services, or assistance related to the supply, sale, transfer, manufacture, maintenance, or use of arms and related materiel
  • to have engaged, or attempted to engage, in any activity that materially contributes to, or poses a risk of materially contributing to, the proliferation of arms or related materiel or items intended for military end-uses or military end-users, including any efforts to manufacture, acquire, possess, develop, transport, transfer, or use such items, by the Government of Iran (including persons owned or controlled by, or acting for or on behalf of the Government of Iran) or paramilitary organizations financially or militarily supported by the Government of Iran

are determined as sanctioned activities. Also any person to have materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this EO is subject to similar restrictions.

Any person who is willing to act according to the terminated UN sanctions, or other words selling weapons to Iran, are going to face with the US sanctions. Also it is needed to be thought once again that in an environment where the food & pharma companies are not willing to involve in Iran business due to the sanction risk*, expectation of a start in selling arms to Iran is not a match with the reality in the field.

From any perspective, due to the US sanctions – mostly for secondary sanctions- , terminated UN sanctions are not going to be effective. Directly or indirectly there is no effect into the on going comprehensive Iran sanctions of US and the conditions of Iran economy.

*Needless to say that there are general licenses and exemptions for selling agricultural commodities, medicine and medical devices to Iran in US sanctions. These licenses involve some restrictive criteria mostly for not to touch any sanctioned party within the trade/ finance transactions.

Abdurrahman ÖZBEK

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